Aspen Real Estate Archives - Gareth Williams

Fall 2022 Aspen Snowmass Market Update

We’ve had our first snowstorm of the season on the heels of weeks of gorgeous autumn weather. With town pretty quiet it’s a great time to pick our heads up, look at the big picture and, most importantly, get excited for the coming winter. It is true that so many of us came for the winters but stayed for the summers but skiing and riding does remain central to our lives and all of us here certainly are looking forward to getting back to what drew us here.

This fall, picking our heads up and taking quantitative look at the market has been particularly interesting. The Aspen Chamber Resort Association recently published their statistics for the 2022 summer season. As a result, we can now get a sense of where the market is trending, what the impact of the pandemic has been, and what that means for our clients. Whether you are considering entering the real estate market, assessing your real estate options, or simply planning your holidays here, it’s worthwhile taking a few minutes to consider what the numbers are showing us.

We’ve been working recently with our friends at Permafrost Information Strategies to better understand the long- and short-term impact of the pandemic on our marketplace, and their insightful analysis certainly has helped to crystalize our thinking. Along with Permafrost, we use lodging occupancy rates for Aspen Snowmass as a bellwether of our local economy. Though obviously limited in scope to one particular sector of the vacationing pubic, we find occupancy data to be a concise lens through which to see long-term trends for how our resort is doing generally. When assessing the impact of the pandemic on the market and looking ahead to what we expect from this winter, weekly and monthly occupancy averages against historical figures have been our focus. Looking at the recently released data from the busy 2022 summer season here provides us with the big picture view that we’ve been anxiously awaiting – it allows us to see the way in which the Aspen Snowmass lodging and real property markets may move post-pandemic and what long-term effects from the pandemic we are likely to see.

What Recent Data Shows About the COVID-19 Pandemic

What’s clear from the data is that we can now draw a tight circle around the months where occupancy was impacted directly by the pandemic. Those months that we view as skewing historical averages and affecting long-term trending are generally March 2020 through and including March 2021. While occupancy rates for February 2021, for example, were still significantly below long-term February averages, March 2021 saw a notable up-tick. March 2021 was still slightly below the seven March averages immediately preceding the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020, but it did prove to be a significant correction from the pandemic months. Occupancy rates in April 2021 were strong compared to historical averages; and December 2021, and February and March 2022 saw the highest average occupancy rates for those months. Simply put, we can now see the big picture and understand it, and the way the data is trending it looks as though winter season occupancy is back to “normal” rates and that data demonstrates a general trend of growth similar to what we saw in the pre-pandemic winter seasons. As Permafrost’s Russ Kauff emphasizes, this analysis is not merely about throwing out high and low periods of economic performance so as to not include ‘force majeure’ and the like from our long-term view of discretionary spending; it’s about understanding how consumers prioritize components of their spending, where Aspen Snowmass fits into their thinking about their spending, and how their long-term behavior may be affected.

Summer and Shoulder-Season 2022

It is worth noting that the data from the summer months during the pandemic is where the most interesting trends have been in terms of what it tells us about how visitors’ behavior changed. In short, occupancy rates for the summer months were exceptionally strong in 2021 and 2022. Not surprisingly, we attribute this to travel having been curtailed and remote work having spiked significantly during those periods. Charting June, July and August over a long period that includes pre-pandemic years clearly shows summer 2022 to have been a return to pre-COVID trending, and the same is true of the traditionally quieter months of September and October.

Notably, August 2022 saw gross occupancy rates slightly lower than 2021 though still strong taking a long-term historical view. Internally, Russ at Permafrost has been using the tongue-in-cheek metaphor of ‘nesting travel versus adventure travel’ to describe how consumer behavior differed between the summers of 2021 and 2022. Synthesizing why that happened clearly involves a combination of a strong US dollar and pent-up demand for international travel as European nations in particular reduced or eliminated COVID restrictions. Still, taking the long view shows August 2022 to have been slightly less exceptional, perhaps less exuberant, but still quite strong and trending towards long-term growth.

Like the occupancy rates for summer 2022, we do expect some small amount of moderation of the spikes over the next couple of years. Still, as described above, we nonetheless foresee the progressive upward trend from the pre-pandemic years to continue.

The Effects of Short-Term Rentals

One of the shortcomings of the available data is that measuring ‘homeowner occupancy’ or the performance of Airbnb and VRBO properties as a way of generating a quantitative understanding of true lodging business levels is a challenging proposition. Anecdotally, summer 2022 certainly felt like an exceptionally busy season here in the Roaring Fork Valley. From a broader economic perspective, valley businesses that serve our guests did maintain notably high business levels throughout the summer months of 2022, and the numerous events that had been curtailed during the pandemic (Food & Wine Classic in Aspen, the Aspen Ideas Festival, Aspen Music Festival, Jazz Aspen Snowmass, etc.) returned to enormous fanfare and record crowds. Again, it’s possible that this was attributable to that elusive ‘homeowner occupancy’ level, though that is speculative. There are some interesting new analytical tools making use of web search algorithms to derive short-term rental variations on traditional occupancy rate data, and we expect to be able to provide greater insight to our clients about those platforms later this year.

Looking Ahead, and Looking Forward to Winter

Where does this analysis leave us and what are we seeing and thinking here in our hometown of Aspen? The good news, we think, is that it leaves us approximately where we were pre-pandemic. Demand for lodging in Aspen Snowmass continues to grow at a rate that is consistent and far less elastic (to be polite) that the widely publicized single-family residential property market here.

We believe that in the long term, Aspen Snowmass resort’s combination of limited hotel space, numerous hotel branded rental and ownership properties, and in-town short-term rental properties dampens the volatility which characterizes the top end of the private property market in recent quarters. This gives us confidence for the upcoming winter season. In short, we expect to welcome a great many guests to our mountains this winter, and we expect to see Aspen Snowmass continue to solidify its’ place in the hierarchy of North American vacation marketplaces. As always, we hope all of our guests fall in love with Aspen Snowmass in the same way we did when we arrived here thirty years ago, and that is a major part of why we derive such joy from working with our real estate clients.

The data compiled by the Aspen Chamber Resort Association and discussed here is available at Occupancy Reports | Aspen (aspenchamber.org)

Latest Adaptation Trend – Extended Mountain Stays

Many urban and suburbanites are looking towards the mountains as more than a holiday escape. As the global pandemic continues with no end in sight, people seeking a respite from the stress of crowds see mountain communities like the Roaring Fork Valley (Aspen to Glenwood Springs, Colorado) as the perfect place to relocate for an extended stay.

Mountain homes provide for a welcome change of scenery and access to fresh air and the great outdoors, something in short supply in major metropolitan areas. According to a recent article in the Denver Post, “initial predictions of a wave of panic selling depressing second home prices never materialized. Instead, the opposite has happened. More people are buying in resort areas to escape big cities, and the available inventory has tightened.”

Vacation property rental agencies reported that “not only did occupancy roar back, but guests were staying for long periods of time. [Guests] were either taking extended vacations or, more likely, they were working remotely.”

In fact, “guests have started asking for something that was a rare request before — desks in their rooms.”

“If they can work remotely what does it matter if they are working from their apartment or house or further away,” said [a Denver-based property rental associate]. He also noted that many guests don’t always tell their employers where they are actually located.

Guesty, a [popular] property management software, has seen a 117% increase in reservations of 90 days or more. It is also seeing more spur-of-the-moment rentals. In July, for example, a majority of bookings came within seven days of arrival.

Bookings for holidays periods, including Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s, are running behind they did this time last year, but that might change given the trend to booking closer in. At Gareth Williams Aspen Snowmass Real Estate, we certainly expect those bookings to pick up as the season approaches!

Indeed, given the likelihood that winter resort activities could move to a reservation-only setup, the time to book your accommodations is now. If you are looking for the flexibility to work remotely while taking advantage of everything the Aspen/Snowmass area has to offer be sure to give Gareth a call at (970) 309-7649!

Gareth Sells Aspen Snowmass Estate for $21.2 Million

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 21, 2019
Contact: Gareth Williams, Aspen Snowmass Real Estate 970.309.7649

ASPEN, COLORADO –Aspen Snowmass Real Estate is proud to announce that Gareth Williams successfully represented the buyer of 1500 Owl Creek Ranch throughout the sales process which just closed for $21.2 million.

Situated on 80 Acres nestled between Aspen and Snowmass, the estate “has everything that my buyers were looking for,” said Williams. He first noticed this property located in the prestigious Owl Creek Ranch subdivision property when it was listed in 2012 at $37.5 million. “By 2018 the asking price had come down to $25.5M and was starting to look like a real opportunity for my buyers,” Williams added.

The spacious and luxurious 6-bedroom, 11,722-square-foot home offers everything from a substantial movie theater and guest master wing to a gym and panoramic views of the mountains of Aspen/Snowmass. There is plenty of outdoor space, which boasts 2 ponds, a swimming beach, rolling pastures and views of Mt. Daly, all just minutes from downtown Aspen.

Last month Williams also sold 1227 Alta Vista, a 4400 square foot townhouse adjacent to the Aspen Golf Course for $6,755,000. “We had an above full price offer within a week,” said Williams who was the listing agent and closed the sale in a matter of weeks. Williams adds that the market is still hot for the right properties. Interested sellers and buyers are encouraged to call him at (970) 309-7649.

Aspen’s Lift One Corridor Taking Shape

The developers of Aspen’s new Lift One Corridor joined together on October 1st to unveil their plans for the new lift, new lodging and amenities along South Aspen Street. They shared their plans with roughly 300 members of the Aspen community at the Limelight Lodge in downtown Aspen.

They stated that the plan is the culmination of more than a year of work by the City of Aspen, the Aspen Skiing Company, Lift One Lodge and Gorsuch Haus. According to the developers, “it is truly a testament to the power of collaboration and couldn’t have been done without the significant participation of the Aspen Historical Society and the generosity of the Dolinsek family.”

The plan highlighted the proposed benefits to the community:

The Skiers Chalet Lodge will be relocated to Dean Street and remodeled to house the Aspen Ski History Museum and will include skier services run by the Aspen Skiing Company.
The Skiers Chalet Steakhouse will be moved down the hill along South Aspen Street and reopened as a restaurant.
The historic bull wheel, one tower and chairs from the original Lift 1 will be renovated and showcased right below the new Lift 1A.
The park space at Dean Street will be greatly improved and expanded with the addition of Dolinsek Gardens, Lift One Park, and Willoughby Park, including a 60-foot wide greenway between the two Lift One Lodge buildings for summer mountain access.
50 public parking spaces, public restrooms, public lockers, and bike racks are all part of the new Dean Street mountain portal

The new Lift 1A will be a telemix, a combination of gondola cars and chairs. This format allows year-round, multimodal use and will give the Aspen Skiing Company the opportunity to explore reopening Ruthie’s Restaurant. This is a historic opportunity to bring Lift 1A back to the core of Aspen and make it as easy to access as the Silver Queen Gondola.

Two lodges are proposed as part of the plan. Gorsuch Haus at the top of South Aspen Street, immediately adjacent to the current site of Lift 1A, and Lift One Lodge on the properties once occupied by the Holland House, Skiers Chalet Lodge and Skiers Chalet Steakhouse. Gorsuch Haus will be an 81-room hotel and Lift One Lodge brings another 104 lodge rooms. These new properties contribute much needed new lodge inventory and provide the bed base that is an important foundation for the vitality of this portal.

The developers asked the townspeople to support “this historic opportunity that has emerged thanks to the insistence of Aspen City Council and the many people in the community who pressed for the return of walk-up access to Aspen’s original base area.”

If approved by voters, developer Michael Brown (Lift One Lodge) said it would take four or five years for all of it to be built. Lift 1A would be out of service for one or two seasons.

Because it involves city land, zoning changes and variances to the land-use code, the plan requires a public vote, which is anticipated for this spring.

Developer Jeff Gorsuch (Gorsuch Haus) asked the room for its support in that election and said the project connects the heart of the mountain with the soul of the town.

More information can be found at: www.LiftOneCorridor.com.

July and August 2016 Aspen/Snowmass Housing Statistics

Here are the July and August 2016 local monthly housing statistics based off of sales in the Aspen Board of Realtors FlexMLS program.

The reports are broken down by major area for the Aspen/Glenwood MLS listings. The links are provided here for your convenience. Please feel free to share this valuable information.

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