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The Holidays You’ve Been Imagining

Downtown Aspen on a recent November day.

The middle of November in Aspen, that sliver of time between our spectacular autumn foliage and Thanksgiving, is about as close to an off-season as we get here. There’s still quite a bit of life in town but the place definitely feels as though everyone is catching their breath while slowly getting ready and getting excited for our busy winter. It’s a wonderful time for those of us who live here to see how town is shaping up, to take stock of the last several months, and to look ahead to the snow sports that drew us here in the first place.

Winter 2021-22 brought with it quite a number of changes to the retail and dining scene here, and 22-23 looks to be a little more settled. Strolling around downtown Aspen at the moment, we really enjoy peeking through windows at some new places and at old ones getting a freshening. We’ve had enough recent snowfall for the trails on all four mountains to look brilliantly white from the valley floor, and having Ajax’s trails in particular looking almost ready over the rooftops of the Wheeler Opera House and The Little Nell gets us all in the holiday spirit.

All of this is a nice reminder that although the glitz and glam of Aspen gets the spotlight and can dominate people’s impression of our resort across the globe, what truly sets us apart is that the access to world class dining, lodging, shopping, and winter sports that our guests expect of us still leaves room for a wonderfully atmospheric holiday season with all that we yearn for from that time of year. Strolling around Aspen, slowly breathing in the mountain air on a cold December evening after a warm meal in the company of friends and family is simply good for the spirit and reminds us why we chose this legendary mountain town to make our home.

It’s no wonder (and no surprise, really) that Travel & Leisure has just named Aspen the most charming town in America in which to spend Christmas. 25 Best Christmas Towns in the USA to Spend the Holiday Season (travelandleisure.com).

Thankfully we’re in the hospitality business here, and we very much look forward to sharing our Rocky Mountain home with all of those who choose to visit us for the holidays. Gareth Williams Properties does still have some availability for families to stay in our favorite spots for settling-in and making the most of Aspen Snowmass during the December holidays. We hope you’ll join us, and we’d love to help make the Aspen Snowmass holidays you imagine become a reality.

In the meantime, there are a number of ski lifts already spinning in Colorado. We’ve got some early season turns to make for ourselves so that we’re good and ready for our guests when you get here!

Posted in: Blog, Featured, Featured Blog Posts, Real Estate, Uncategorized, Winter Recreation Tagged: colorado holidays, family holidays, Holiday cheer, holiday vacations, mountain holidays

Fall 2022 Aspen Snowmass Market Update

We’ve had our first snowstorm of the season on the heels of weeks of gorgeous autumn weather. With town pretty quiet it’s a great time to pick our heads up, look at the big picture and, most importantly, get excited for the coming winter. It is true that so many of us came for the winters but stayed for the summers but skiing and riding does remain central to our lives and all of us here certainly are looking forward to getting back to what drew us here.

This fall, picking our heads up and taking quantitative look at the market has been particularly interesting. The Aspen Chamber Resort Association recently published their statistics for the 2022 summer season. As a result, we can now get a sense of where the market is trending, what the impact of the pandemic has been, and what that means for our clients. Whether you are considering entering the real estate market, assessing your real estate options, or simply planning your holidays here, it’s worthwhile taking a few minutes to consider what the numbers are showing us.

We’ve been working recently with our friends at Permafrost Information Strategies to better understand the long- and short-term impact of the pandemic on our marketplace, and their insightful analysis certainly has helped to crystalize our thinking. Along with Permafrost, we use lodging occupancy rates for Aspen Snowmass as a bellwether of our local economy. Though obviously limited in scope to one particular sector of the vacationing pubic, we find occupancy data to be a concise lens through which to see long-term trends for how our resort is doing generally. When assessing the impact of the pandemic on the market and looking ahead to what we expect from this winter, weekly and monthly occupancy averages against historical figures have been our focus. Looking at the recently released data from the busy 2022 summer season here provides us with the big picture view that we’ve been anxiously awaiting – it allows us to see the way in which the Aspen Snowmass lodging and real property markets may move post-pandemic and what long-term effects from the pandemic we are likely to see.

What Recent Data Shows About the COVID-19 Pandemic

What’s clear from the data is that we can now draw a tight circle around the months where occupancy was impacted directly by the pandemic. Those months that we view as skewing historical averages and affecting long-term trending are generally March 2020 through and including March 2021. While occupancy rates for February 2021, for example, were still significantly below long-term February averages, March 2021 saw a notable up-tick. March 2021 was still slightly below the seven March averages immediately preceding the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020, but it did prove to be a significant correction from the pandemic months. Occupancy rates in April 2021 were strong compared to historical averages; and December 2021, and February and March 2022 saw the highest average occupancy rates for those months. Simply put, we can now see the big picture and understand it, and the way the data is trending it looks as though winter season occupancy is back to “normal” rates and that data demonstrates a general trend of growth similar to what we saw in the pre-pandemic winter seasons. As Permafrost’s Russ Kauff emphasizes, this analysis is not merely about throwing out high and low periods of economic performance so as to not include ‘force majeure’ and the like from our long-term view of discretionary spending; it’s about understanding how consumers prioritize components of their spending, where Aspen Snowmass fits into their thinking about their spending, and how their long-term behavior may be affected.

Summer and Shoulder-Season 2022

It is worth noting that the data from the summer months during the pandemic is where the most interesting trends have been in terms of what it tells us about how visitors’ behavior changed. In short, occupancy rates for the summer months were exceptionally strong in 2021 and 2022. Not surprisingly, we attribute this to travel having been curtailed and remote work having spiked significantly during those periods. Charting June, July and August over a long period that includes pre-pandemic years clearly shows summer 2022 to have been a return to pre-COVID trending, and the same is true of the traditionally quieter months of September and October.

Notably, August 2022 saw gross occupancy rates slightly lower than 2021 though still strong taking a long-term historical view. Internally, Russ at Permafrost has been using the tongue-in-cheek metaphor of ‘nesting travel versus adventure travel’ to describe how consumer behavior differed between the summers of 2021 and 2022. Synthesizing why that happened clearly involves a combination of a strong US dollar and pent-up demand for international travel as European nations in particular reduced or eliminated COVID restrictions. Still, taking the long view shows August 2022 to have been slightly less exceptional, perhaps less exuberant, but still quite strong and trending towards long-term growth.

Like the occupancy rates for summer 2022, we do expect some small amount of moderation of the spikes over the next couple of years. Still, as described above, we nonetheless foresee the progressive upward trend from the pre-pandemic years to continue.

The Effects of Short-Term Rentals

One of the shortcomings of the available data is that measuring ‘homeowner occupancy’ or the performance of Airbnb and VRBO properties as a way of generating a quantitative understanding of true lodging business levels is a challenging proposition. Anecdotally, summer 2022 certainly felt like an exceptionally busy season here in the Roaring Fork Valley. From a broader economic perspective, valley businesses that serve our guests did maintain notably high business levels throughout the summer months of 2022, and the numerous events that had been curtailed during the pandemic (Food & Wine Classic in Aspen, the Aspen Ideas Festival, Aspen Music Festival, Jazz Aspen Snowmass, etc.) returned to enormous fanfare and record crowds. Again, it’s possible that this was attributable to that elusive ‘homeowner occupancy’ level, though that is speculative. There are some interesting new analytical tools making use of web search algorithms to derive short-term rental variations on traditional occupancy rate data, and we expect to be able to provide greater insight to our clients about those platforms later this year.

Looking Ahead, and Looking Forward to Winter

Where does this analysis leave us and what are we seeing and thinking here in our hometown of Aspen? The good news, we think, is that it leaves us approximately where we were pre-pandemic. Demand for lodging in Aspen Snowmass continues to grow at a rate that is consistent and far less elastic (to be polite) that the widely publicized single-family residential property market here.

We believe that in the long term, Aspen Snowmass resort’s combination of limited hotel space, numerous hotel branded rental and ownership properties, and in-town short-term rental properties dampens the volatility which characterizes the top end of the private property market in recent quarters. This gives us confidence for the upcoming winter season. In short, we expect to welcome a great many guests to our mountains this winter, and we expect to see Aspen Snowmass continue to solidify its’ place in the hierarchy of North American vacation marketplaces. As always, we hope all of our guests fall in love with Aspen Snowmass in the same way we did when we arrived here thirty years ago, and that is a major part of why we derive such joy from working with our real estate clients.

The data compiled by the Aspen Chamber Resort Association and discussed here is available at Occupancy Reports | Aspen (aspenchamber.org)

Posted in: Blog, Featured Blog Posts, Real Estate, Uncategorized Tagged: Aspen, Aspen Real Estate, Aspen Real Estate Market, Aspen Snowmass, Pandemic Real Estate Market, Ski Season 2022-23, Snowmass, snowmass real estate, Winter 22-23

Latest Adaptation Trend – Extended Mountain Stays

Many urban and suburbanites are looking towards the mountains as more than a holiday escape. As the global pandemic continues with no end in sight, people seeking a respite from the stress of crowds see mountain communities like the Roaring Fork Valley (Aspen to Glenwood Springs, Colorado) as the perfect place to relocate for an extended stay.

Mountain homes provide for a welcome change of scenery and access to fresh air and the great outdoors, something in short supply in major metropolitan areas. According to a recent article in the Denver Post, “initial predictions of a wave of panic selling depressing second home prices never materialized. Instead, the opposite has happened. More people are buying in resort areas to escape big cities, and the available inventory has tightened.”

Vacation property rental agencies reported that “not only did occupancy roar back, but guests were staying for long periods of time. [Guests] were either taking extended vacations or, more likely, they were working remotely.”

In fact, “guests have started asking for something that was a rare request before — desks in their rooms.”

“If they can work remotely what does it matter if they are working from their apartment or house or further away,” said [a Denver-based property rental associate]. He also noted that many guests don’t always tell their employers where they are actually located.

Guesty, a [popular] property management software, has seen a 117% increase in reservations of 90 days or more. It is also seeing more spur-of-the-moment rentals. In July, for example, a majority of bookings came within seven days of arrival.

Bookings for holidays periods, including Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s, are running behind they did this time last year, but that might change given the trend to booking closer in. At Gareth Williams Aspen Snowmass Real Estate, we certainly expect those bookings to pick up as the season approaches!

Indeed, given the likelihood that winter resort activities could move to a reservation-only setup, the time to book your accommodations is now. If you are looking for the flexibility to work remotely while taking advantage of everything the Aspen/Snowmass area has to offer be sure to give Gareth a call at (970) 309-7649!

Posted in: Blog, Featured Blog Posts, Real Estate Tagged: Aspen Real Estate, Aspen Snowmass, Aspen Vacation Homes, Aspen Vacation Rentals, COVID-19, Relocation

Gareth Sells Aspen Snowmass Estate for $21.2 Million

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 21, 2019
Contact: Gareth Williams, Aspen Snowmass Real Estate 970.309.7649

ASPEN, COLORADO –Aspen Snowmass Real Estate is proud to announce that Gareth Williams successfully represented the buyer of 1500 Owl Creek Ranch throughout the sales process which just closed for $21.2 million.

Situated on 80 Acres nestled between Aspen and Snowmass, the estate “has everything that my buyers were looking for,” said Williams.  He first noticed this property located in the prestigious Owl Creek Ranch subdivision property when it was listed in 2012 at $37.5 million.  “By 2018 the asking price had come down to $25.5M and was starting to look like a real opportunity for my buyers,” Williams added.

The spacious and luxurious 6-bedroom, 11,722-square-foot home offers everything from a substantial movie theater and guest master wing to a gym and panoramic views of the mountains of Aspen/Snowmass. There is plenty of outdoor space, which boasts 2 ponds, a swimming beach, rolling pastures and views of Mt. Daly, all just minutes from downtown Aspen.

Last month Williams also sold 1227 Alta Vista, a 4400 square foot townhouse adjacent to the Aspen Golf Course for $6,755,000. “We had an above full price offer within a week,” said Williams who was the listing agent and closed the sale in a matter of weeks. Williams adds that the market is still hot for the right properties. Interested sellers and buyers are encouraged to call him at (970) 309-7649.

Posted in: Blog, Featured Blog Posts, Real Estate, Uncategorized Tagged: aspen homes for sale, aspen luxury home, Aspen Real Estate, snowmass homes for sale, snowmass real estate

Aspen/Snowmass Real Estate Trends

What does the start of September mean for the real estate market? The Colorado Association of Realtors’ most recent market snapshot shows last month’s single family home and townhome/condo median sales price is up across the board year-to-date. A new Pew Research Center report details the one generation of Americans who have fully recovered from the housing crash a decade ago. And a Zillow Research report from last month explains when they believe it will be a buyers market!

Midvalley (Basalt, Willits, El Jebel) was a more mixed bag with transactions per month down 21% versus last year but gross volume (total sales amount) up 8.8%. The total year to date transactions are up by almost 13% over 2017, pointing to tighter inventory but solid overall sales. The numbers are taken from current July 2018 records from Pitkin, Eagle and Garfield Counties.

The Garfield County (Carbondale to Glenwood Springs and westward to Rifle and Battlement Mesa) picture in July 2018 was much better with sales, volume and YTD statistics up across the board. Gross volume was up 31%, transactions up just 1% (169 vs. 167), gross volume YTD up 12.5% and YTD transactions up 10%.

Contact Gareth for more information about how these trends could work in your favor whether you’re a buyer or a seller!

 

Posted in: Blog, Real Estate

July and August 2016 Aspen/Snowmass Housing Statistics

Here are the July and August 2016 local monthly housing statistics based off of sales in the Aspen Board of Realtors FlexMLS program.

The reports are broken down by major area for the Aspen/Glenwood MLS listings. The links are provided here for your convenience. Please feel free to share this valuable information.

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aspen-aug-2016-stats

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snowmass-village-aug-2016-stats

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Posted in: Real Estate, Uncategorized Tagged: Aspen Housing, Aspen Real Estate, Real Estate

Latest Aspen Real Estate Transactions – May 23-27, 2016

Grantor: Alice Brien
Grantee: 17 Queen LLC, Aspen
Property: 114 Neale/17 Queen Historic Lot Split Lot 2
Cost: $12,140,000.00

Grantor: B David McDavid
Grantee:  Edgewood Real Estate LLC
Property: Woodrun I Lot 60
Cost: $10,595,000.00

Grantor: James E and Joan Swanson
Grantee: Jeffrey E and Paula B Danoff, Winnetka, IL
Property: Shadow Mountain Lodge Unit 10
Cost: $16,000

Grantor: Edward D Dubord
Grantee: Adam and Katherine Cooper, Basalt
Property: Elk Run PUD Lot 403 Blk 4
Cost: $550,000.00

Grantor: Bell Mountain Trust
Grantee: Ray Everett McNutt II and Katherine Dupps, Aspen
Property: Aspen Villas Unit A2
Cost: $1,195,000.00

Grantor: East Durant LLC
Grantee:  Lewis Trust, Hillsborough, CA
Property: Durant Mall Unit G
Cost: $4,100,000.00

Grantor: Nosan Family II LLC
Grantee: Samuel Eber, Sag Harbor, NY
Property: Aspen Highlands Condo Unit 8208
Cost: $79,000.00

Grantor: Wells Fargo Bank West
Grantee: Gant Condominium Association Inc., Aspen
Property: Mill Street Unit 101
Cost: $985,500.00

Posted in: Real Estate

Gareth Williams Video Introduction

If you haven’t seen it already, check out Gareth Williams’ Intro video on our YouTube channel:

You can also find links to new and interesting videos about Aspen and the ski industry on his ‘liked’ videos:

Enjoy, and, pray for snow!

Posted in: Real Estate, Uncategorized Tagged: Gareth Williams

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About Gareth Williams

As an experienced Aspen real estate broker specializing in vacation rentals featuring luxury lodging at St. Regis Aspen, Ritz-Carlton Club Aspen Highlands and Aspen Mountain Residences, I provide my clients exceptional pricing and outstanding customer service to ensure a wonderful luxury vacation rental experience in Aspen, Colorado. Gareth Williams Aspen Snowmass Real Estate also offers a comprehensive portfolio of luxury homes for sale in Aspen, Aspen Highlands and Snowmass Village, Colorado. Book online or call me directly! Read more ...

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