Spring has sprung, the mountains have closed and locals are heading to more tropical locales (hello Cabo!) for some rest and relaxation. We’ve officially reached the offseason in Aspen, so it’s the perfect time to update you on the latest trends in the real estate market out here.
January 2024 started off at a strong clip with 13 closed sales above $10 million but as we dig into the numbers there’s much more to share. Let’s have a look:
The overall picture looks similar to our last update in November 2023 as the analysis shows a market slightly favoring buyers. The median list price has dropped $1,200,000 since then to $18.2 million and price per square foot is down over $300 to $3,551 which reflects a different mix of inventory that could be compelling to those looking to buy. That said, Q1 sales for Aspen are up 30% in dollar volume and 40% in unit sales compared to the first quarter of 2023 and properties are moving for close to their asking prices.
Time to dig into our market segment categories below for more detailed picture!
Things in the condo market are tracking much the same as when the season began as the average number of days on the market has plateaued at 140 days (same as in November 2023). Increased interest typically crests and falls with the ski season out here so this is no surprise. The price per square foot is up $150 to $3,531 but has remained in a steady range since April of 2022. The median price has rebounded strongly from last fall to just below $4.2 million (already eclipsing last summer’s peak) and properties in this segment are selling for 95% of asking. To top it off, listings are closing earlier and this category is hot right now. Have a look at current inventory here!
Here’s our duplex and older free-standing home category. As we’ve previously noted, these properties tend to be further outside Aspen’s downtown core, but can provide some excellent value for the money. There seem to be fewer properties for sale now but the price has also fallen a bit since last fall ($6,700,000 and 2,860 square feet vs. $7,224,500 and 2,522 square feet). This is a tighter market than in November but you can get more for your money these days. View these listings here!
Residential homes in this segment make up the majority of the market out here. Things are trending upwards since November as the median price in this category has moved up somewhat to $15,579,000. The market has recalibrated based on higher interest rates and buyers can expect to find newer properties (roughly 10 years younger than the category below). Since January 1st of 2024, there have been 13 closed sales in Aspen above $10m; or one home closing every 5 days over $10m. Snowmass has seen a lot of activity in this category with compelling new, slope-side properties coming onto the market in the past year. Here’s the current inventory of homes in this group!
We just reached another new record for high dollar home sales in this category. According to the Aspen Times, Aspen just posted a record real estate closing on a property worth $108 million dollars, eclipsing a recent high water mark sale of a $77 million dollar estate just two weeks prior! This sale will certainly be eclipsed in the coming months as Aspen homes ranked among the highest median sale prices throughout the country in Q1 2024, both in median cost and price per square foot. Overall, this segment sits at the top end of all real estate in the country but continues to be relatively stable. According to our friend Tim Estin, an estimated 100-125 billionaires own property in Aspen, and “the billionaire influence has been a significant driver to the Aspen Market.” The median price has gone up a bit but so has the square footage ($38,500,000 for 5 bedrooms, 8 baths and 8,383 square feet versus $35,000,000 for 5 bedrooms, 7 baths and 7,032 square feet last November). Have a look at the listings in this price range here!
Rental Properties
If you're interested in relocating to Aspen be sure to have a look at the wide selection of rental properties on the market right now. This is a perfect option for those who may need to move here before purchasing or anyone who may just want to spend a season out here. Be forewarned, many who join us for a season wind up never leaving!
What to Expect this Summer!
The seasonality of Aspen also applies to the real estate market out here. With the mountains completely closed we’ve now reached Aspen’s offseason. We anticipate a slight drop in interest from buyers, a decrease in new inventory and fewer closings as sellers wait until the end of the month of May to list their properties.
Continued high interest rates may act as a cooler on the market, but as we’ve seen from this week’s record sale, motivated buyers at the top end of the market still have the means to look past this in order to get what they want. Pitkin County property taxes are among the lowest in the country, providing a further incentive for buyers. The high end of the market will continue to be hot, as Forbes magazine reports that there are 141 more billionaires in April 2024 vs. two years prior.
Demand will continue to outstrip supply as inventory of available properties bottomed in 2022 and has increased 78% by March of this year. That said, the number of Aspen properties for sale currently is approximately 50% less than March of 2020 and almost 60% less than March 2019 (pre-pandemic). Property values continue to go up, making Aspen real estate a compelling investment when measured against the current state of the S&P 500. As Estin puts it, “history has shown that Aspen real estate has been a proven safe harbor and a profitable diversification play for the past 70 years.” The limited availability of properties, the lack of vacant land for development, and the continued desirability for a healthy and safe lifestyle continue to make Aspen incredibly compelling to buyers.
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