Fall 2022 Aspen Snowmass Market Update

We’ve had our first snowstorm of the season on the heels of weeks of gorgeous autumn weather. With town pretty quiet it’s a great time to pick our heads up, look at the big picture and, most importantly, get excited for the coming winter. It is true that so many of us came for the winters but stayed for the summers but skiing and riding does remain central to our lives and all of us here certainly are looking forward to getting back to what drew us here.

This fall, picking our heads up and taking quantitative look at the market has been particularly interesting. The Aspen Chamber Resort Association recently published their statistics for the 2022 summer season. As a result, we can now get a sense of where the market is trending, what the impact of the pandemic has been, and what that means for our clients. Whether you are considering entering the real estate market, assessing your real estate options, or simply planning your holidays here, it’s worthwhile taking a few minutes to consider what the numbers are showing us.

We’ve been working recently with our friends at Permafrost Information Strategies to better understand the long- and short-term impact of the pandemic on our marketplace, and their insightful analysis certainly has helped to crystalize our thinking. Along with Permafrost, we use lodging occupancy rates for Aspen Snowmass as a bellwether of our local economy. Though obviously limited in scope to one particular sector of the vacationing pubic, we find occupancy data to be a concise lens through which to see long-term trends for how our resort is doing generally. When assessing the impact of the pandemic on the market and looking ahead to what we expect from this winter, weekly and monthly occupancy averages against historical figures have been our focus. Looking at the recently released data from the busy 2022 summer season here provides us with the big picture view that we’ve been anxiously awaiting – it allows us to see the way in which the Aspen Snowmass lodging and real property markets may move post-pandemic and what long-term effects from the pandemic we are likely to see.

What Recent Data Shows About the COVID-19 Pandemic

What’s clear from the data is that we can now draw a tight circle around the months where occupancy was impacted directly by the pandemic. Those months that we view as skewing historical averages and affecting long-term trending are generally March 2020 through and including March 2021. While occupancy rates for February 2021, for example, were still significantly below long-term February averages, March 2021 saw a notable up-tick. March 2021 was still slightly below the seven March averages immediately preceding the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020, but it did prove to be a significant correction from the pandemic months. Occupancy rates in April 2021 were strong compared to historical averages; and December 2021, and February and March 2022 saw the highest average occupancy rates for those months. Simply put, we can now see the big picture and understand it, and the way the data is trending it looks as though winter season occupancy is back to “normal” rates and that data demonstrates a general trend of growth similar to what we saw in the pre-pandemic winter seasons. As Permafrost’s Russ Kauff emphasizes, this analysis is not merely about throwing out high and low periods of economic performance so as to not include ‘force majeure’ and the like from our long-term view of discretionary spending; it’s about understanding how consumers prioritize components of their spending, where Aspen Snowmass fits into their thinking about their spending, and how their long-term behavior may be affected.

Summer and Shoulder-Season 2022

It is worth noting that the data from the summer months during the pandemic is where the most interesting trends have been in terms of what it tells us about how visitors’ behavior changed. In short, occupancy rates for the summer months were exceptionally strong in 2021 and 2022. Not surprisingly, we attribute this to travel having been curtailed and remote work having spiked significantly during those periods. Charting June, July and August over a long period that includes pre-pandemic years clearly shows summer 2022 to have been a return to pre-COVID trending, and the same is true of the traditionally quieter months of September and October.

Notably, August 2022 saw gross occupancy rates slightly lower than 2021 though still strong taking a long-term historical view. Internally, Russ at Permafrost has been using the tongue-in-cheek metaphor of ‘nesting travel versus adventure travel’ to describe how consumer behavior differed between the summers of 2021 and 2022. Synthesizing why that happened clearly involves a combination of a strong US dollar and pent-up demand for international travel as European nations in particular reduced or eliminated COVID restrictions. Still, taking the long view shows August 2022 to have been slightly less exceptional, perhaps less exuberant, but still quite strong and trending towards long-term growth.

Like the occupancy rates for summer 2022, we do expect some small amount of moderation of the spikes over the next couple of years. Still, as described above, we nonetheless foresee the progressive upward trend from the pre-pandemic years to continue.

The Effects of Short-Term Rentals

One of the shortcomings of the available data is that measuring ‘homeowner occupancy’ or the performance of Airbnb and VRBO properties as a way of generating a quantitative understanding of true lodging business levels is a challenging proposition. Anecdotally, summer 2022 certainly felt like an exceptionally busy season here in the Roaring Fork Valley. From a broader economic perspective, valley businesses that serve our guests did maintain notably high business levels throughout the summer months of 2022, and the numerous events that had been curtailed during the pandemic (Food & Wine Classic in Aspen, the Aspen Ideas Festival, Aspen Music Festival, Jazz Aspen Snowmass, etc.) returned to enormous fanfare and record crowds. Again, it’s possible that this was attributable to that elusive ‘homeowner occupancy’ level, though that is speculative. There are some interesting new analytical tools making use of web search algorithms to derive short-term rental variations on traditional occupancy rate data, and we expect to be able to provide greater insight to our clients about those platforms later this year.

Looking Ahead, and Looking Forward to Winter

Where does this analysis leave us and what are we seeing and thinking here in our hometown of Aspen? The good news, we think, is that it leaves us approximately where we were pre-pandemic. Demand for lodging in Aspen Snowmass continues to grow at a rate that is consistent and far less elastic (to be polite) that the widely publicized single-family residential property market here.

We believe that in the long term, Aspen Snowmass resort’s combination of limited hotel space, numerous hotel branded rental and ownership properties, and in-town short-term rental properties dampens the volatility which characterizes the top end of the private property market in recent quarters. This gives us confidence for the upcoming winter season. In short, we expect to welcome a great many guests to our mountains this winter, and we expect to see Aspen Snowmass continue to solidify its’ place in the hierarchy of North American vacation marketplaces. As always, we hope all of our guests fall in love with Aspen Snowmass in the same way we did when we arrived here thirty years ago, and that is a major part of why we derive such joy from working with our real estate clients.

The data compiled by the Aspen Chamber Resort Association and discussed here is available at Occupancy Reports | Aspen (aspenchamber.org)

Aspen Non-Stop Air Options Increase!

Austin, TX and Orange County, CA Now Offer New Non-Stop Service to Aspen for 2021/22!

According to last week's Aspen Times, "nonstop commercial flights to Aspen-Pitkin County Airport from up to six airports between Texas and California are part of a schedule that is all but finalized for the upcoming winter ski season."

The newest locations for non-stop service include Orange County, California and Austin, Texas.

“I think this is a pretty solid plan,” said Bill Tomcich, a consultant to Fly Aspen Snowmass, which is an alliance among Aspen Skiing Co., Aspen-Pitkin County Airport, Aspen Chamber Resort Association and Snowmass Tourism.

On Friday, what Tomcich said is the final piece to the winter flight schedule came with the announcement of two daily direct flights between Santa Ana, California, and Aspen. United Airlines will offer the flights starting Dec. 16 and running through March 26. The incoming, nonstop flights to Aspen will originate from John Wayne Airport.

The two newcomers join San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Denver, Dallas, Houston, Chicago and Atlanta giving guests a wider choice of route options than the town has had in many years. This is surely a sign of the continued popularity of Aspen/Snowmass as a vacation destination.

Now that you know how to get here why not pay us a visit this winter? Gareth can connect you with the best possible luxury lodging whenever you choose to come! Call (970) 309-7649 or email him at [email protected] and reserve your accommodations today!

Aspen Snowmass Shifts Winter Marketing for 2020/2021

Scaling Back and Moving Online

A recent article in the September 30 Aspen Times reports on the challenge of promoting winter sports during these uncertain times. The Aspen Skiing Company rethought everything and the resort scaled back their support staff and magazine ad buys.

“Aspen Skiing Co.’s marketing campaign will look significantly different this winter, both in substance and execution,” writes Times reporter Scott Condon. “There will be no national branding such as the “Give a Flake” effort of recent seasons.”

The management company for the mountains of Aspen/Snowmass has let some staff members go and tightened up their strategy in response to the current economic environment.

“It’s definitely going to be a different kind of marketing campaign,” Jeff Hanle, Skico vice president of communications, said Tuesday. “You have to remain flexible and ready to pivot.”

Gone is the campaign urging skiers, snowboarders and other outdoor lovers to “Give a Flake” and get involved in concrete action to ease global warming.

“We’ve moved on from that. That was the plan already,” Hanle said.

The article goes on to state that “an advertising agency was working with Skico officials on a new campaign, but that’s been put on hold. There won’t be any advertisements in ski publications in January, for example, because conditions could change so drastically by then, Hanle noted. The ads would have to be finalized now to run in January.”

“Instead, Skico will remain nimble with messages that will be shared primarily through digital platforms. They will ...focus on education about protocols to keep customers safe from the spread of the coronavirus, trumpeting fresh snowfall and renewing the spirit during a tough time by getting outdoors, according to Hanle.”

The types of visitors the resort typically sees will change this year with fewer international visitors and more “drive-time” domestic visitors. The resort expects guests to stay longer than what would be typical during an average year.

A big part of the marketing effort will be education about the new hands-free procedures that will be in place for everything from ordering food at restaurants to buying lift tickets.

Both the town and the resort are working hard to plan and educate guests on how to have fun and stay safe this winter.

For the full article click here!

Latest Adaptation Trend – Extended Mountain Stays

Many urban and suburbanites are looking towards the mountains as more than a holiday escape. As the global pandemic continues with no end in sight, people seeking a respite from the stress of crowds see mountain communities like the Roaring Fork Valley (Aspen to Glenwood Springs, Colorado) as the perfect place to relocate for an extended stay.

Mountain homes provide for a welcome change of scenery and access to fresh air and the great outdoors, something in short supply in major metropolitan areas. According to a recent article in the Denver Post, “initial predictions of a wave of panic selling depressing second home prices never materialized. Instead, the opposite has happened. More people are buying in resort areas to escape big cities, and the available inventory has tightened.”

Vacation property rental agencies reported that “not only did occupancy roar back, but guests were staying for long periods of time. [Guests] were either taking extended vacations or, more likely, they were working remotely.”

In fact, “guests have started asking for something that was a rare request before — desks in their rooms.”

“If they can work remotely what does it matter if they are working from their apartment or house or further away,” said [a Denver-based property rental associate]. He also noted that many guests don’t always tell their employers where they are actually located.

Guesty, a [popular] property management software, has seen a 117% increase in reservations of 90 days or more. It is also seeing more spur-of-the-moment rentals. In July, for example, a majority of bookings came within seven days of arrival.

Bookings for holidays periods, including Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s, are running behind they did this time last year, but that might change given the trend to booking closer in. At Gareth Williams Aspen Snowmass Real Estate, we certainly expect those bookings to pick up as the season approaches!

Indeed, given the likelihood that winter resort activities could move to a reservation-only setup, the time to book your accommodations is now. If you are looking for the flexibility to work remotely while taking advantage of everything the Aspen/Snowmass area has to offer be sure to give Gareth a call at (970) 309-7649!

Spring Value Season is Here

Spring value season has arrived in Aspen!

Spring in Aspen/Snowmass is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory. According to recent reports our snowpack is well over 100% of average. The conditions outside swing from snow to sun every few days and the days are getting longer, leaving more time for sunny apres-ski celebrations!

Aspen enters spring with a full slate of events including the Apres Ski Cocktail Classic (March 12-15), more Aspen Laugh Festival performances at the Wheeler Opera House (March 12-13), and The Bud Light Spring Jam (March 17-22) with contests, live music and big air competitions at all four mountains.

For the past few years Aspen Skiing Company has joined forces with 17 other prominent ski areas to offer the Mountain Collective pass. Passholders get two free days at Aspen/Snowmass and 50% the window ticket price for any days beyond that.

Aspen also accepts the 2019/2020 Ikon Pass, which entitles members to ski or ride for up to seven days out here - good enough for a nice vacation - hint, hint! If you purchased either of these passes this past year now is definitely the time to get out here and use them!

We’re expecting a fantastic spring season out here so reach out to Gareth and come join us. Breathe the mountain air, enjoy the sunny (and snowy!) weather and live it up in the best place in the Rockies!

App Adds to Aspen Fun

How do you make the most of your time on the mountain?

Aspen Skiing Company has been polling guests and has just what they need. Vacationers these days look for their cell phone apps to enhance all kinds of experiences, from travel to dining to tracking fitness. Aspen's newly improved on-mountain app does all of the above and more. A recent Aspen Times article interviewed the in-house developers at Aspen Skiing Company about just what goes in to building and improving their app.

Guests can now start their day with the latest information about on-mountain conditions. They can see current weather and snow reports from each of the four mountains. This info is updated every hour, but that’s just the beginning.

Worried about getting lost or taking a wrong turn? Peace of mind is close to hand as the app can actually track your location on the mountain and even alert ski patrol if necessary.

Are you someone who loves setting goals and measuring your progress? The built-in tracker lets you see how many vertical feet you covered each day. It’s the perfect way to challenge your friends and see who’s really in shape the next time you have a powder day!

According to the article, future improvements could include ways to meet up with friends and family on the mountain, assuming cell network coverage permits.

Being on vacation can be a great way to escape from our phones, but for those who enjoy having them alongside sometimes a little technology can make being out on the mountain even more fun and rewarding. At last count over 100,000 current users would agree!

Winter Alternatives on the Upswing

While downhill skiing and snowboarding take the lion’s share of the spotlight in Aspen, a variety of winter recreation alternatives including uphilling, snowshoeing and nordic skiing are increasingly popular with locals and guests alike. These winter alternatives can be great options for those looking for new outdoor experiences!

Uphilling

Uphilling, skinning or ski touring is essentially hiking up the mountain on modified skis or a split snowboard. This method of scaling our four mountains includes attaching “skins” (adhesive strips) to the bottoms of skis that allow the ski to move freely forward but catch the snow and “stick” instead of sliding backwards. This method also requires special skis with bindings that release from the heels, (or a special snowboard that splits left and right for each foot).

Several local ski shops including Four Mountain Sports, Performance Ski, the Ute Mountaineer and Cripple Creek Backcountry rent this equipment.

Snowshoeing

As the snowpack rises, trail runners and hikers turn to snowshoes. Modern snowshoes are highly portable, lightweight, made of fabric and metal and attach easily to winter boots. Being able to set foot on top of the show rather than sink through it makes all the difference in the backcountry. A day hike becomes a treat rather than a slog!

Snowshoes can be found at almost all backcountry equipment retailers including Ute Mountaineer and Cripple Creek Backcountry.

Cross-Country Skiing

Nordic or cross-country skis have been transporting Aspenites around town and between the mountains for well over 100 years. Both classic and skate-skiing techniques are in full swing during the winters out here.

In fact, though the Winter Olympics Nordic events have always been the domain of the Europeans, the U.S. Ski Team has made serious strides in competition recently, thanks in part to local athletes Simi Hamilton and Noah Hoffman.

The Aspen Snowmass Nordic Trail System boasts over 60 miles of trails stretching between and through the towns of Aspen and Snowmass Village, many of which are groomed daily and several that are dog-friendly.

Renters should head to the Aspen Golf Course or the Snowmass Golf Course for rentals and more information.

What’s the appeal?

If you follow the rules, uphilling can get you access to our ski mountains including on-mountain restaurants and earn you one free downhill run, i.e. save you the cost of a lift ticket. Any further lift access does require a lift ticket however.

All of the above offer terrific exercise, giving you the benefits of being outdoors and the freedom to go where you please. Aspen/Snowmass has tons of recreational trails outside of the ski mountains themselves that can be accessed this way. In fact, most people going on hut trips use ski mountaineering including nordic and uphilling techniques to get from one hut to the next.

Regardless of the method you choose, book your vacation with Gareth, then get out there and enjoy the best of winter in the Rocky Mountains!

SKI Magazine – Aspen Snowmass Named “Resort of the Year”

Aspen Gets the Honors

What makes a resort special? For SKI Magazine the answer lies in a having a variety of amenities including terrain, fun for the whole family, and great apres-ski and nightlife options. This year, Aspen Snowmass checks all the boxes and was named SKI Magazine’s No. 1 ski “resort of the year” in the West.

SKI Magazine unveiled its debut “Resorts of the Year” issue in October, with categories featuring “Best in the West” and “Best in the East.” Smugglers’ Notch in Vermont is ranked the top ski resort of the East.

These two resorts garnered editor and reader praise for offering skiers the best overall vacation experiences, according to a statement from SKI Magazine.

“With its variety of terrain across four resorts, family-friendly offerings and virtually unmatched dining, lodging and apres in the vibrant town of Aspen, Aspen Snowmass delivers the whole package,” SKI Magazine content director Samantha Berman said in the statement. “Add to that the resort management’s forward-thinking attitude toward the environment and its inclusion in the industry-changing Ikon Pass, and we feel that Aspen-Snowmass is the destination generating the most buzz going into this season.”

Great Amenities

The magazine writes, “the four mountains that make up Aspen Snowmass are the gold standard for American skiing. Aspen Mountain, Aspen Highlands, Buttermilk, and Snowmass each have their own character, which is why most skiers visit a different mountain each day of their visit.

The Dumps on Aspen Mountain or the glades beneath Snowmass’s High Alpine Lift are a must when it’s snowing, while the breathtaking descent of Highlands Bowl or the empty, perfect groomers of Tiehack beg for attention when the sky is blue. If the renown nightlife stretches on too long, at least one mountain will have a daily noon groomer on the weekends, keeping the corduroy fresh for those who hit the snooze button too many times.

The world-class ski school can get the kids carving at Buttermilk or Snowmass while Mom and Dad can enjoy the decadent pleasures of top-to-bottom gondola laps or the infamous 2:30 p.m. seating at Cloud 9 Bistro, all before a perfect family rendezvous for dinner in town. ”

Aspen’s Lift One Corridor Taking Shape

The developers of Aspen’s new Lift One Corridor joined together on October 1st to unveil their plans for the new lift, new lodging and amenities along South Aspen Street. They shared their plans with roughly 300 members of the Aspen community at the Limelight Lodge in downtown Aspen.

They stated that the plan is the culmination of more than a year of work by the City of Aspen, the Aspen Skiing Company, Lift One Lodge and Gorsuch Haus. According to the developers, “it is truly a testament to the power of collaboration and couldn’t have been done without the significant participation of the Aspen Historical Society and the generosity of the Dolinsek family.”

The plan highlighted the proposed benefits to the community:

The Skiers Chalet Lodge will be relocated to Dean Street and remodeled to house the Aspen Ski History Museum and will include skier services run by the Aspen Skiing Company.
The Skiers Chalet Steakhouse will be moved down the hill along South Aspen Street and reopened as a restaurant.
The historic bull wheel, one tower and chairs from the original Lift 1 will be renovated and showcased right below the new Lift 1A.
The park space at Dean Street will be greatly improved and expanded with the addition of Dolinsek Gardens, Lift One Park, and Willoughby Park, including a 60-foot wide greenway between the two Lift One Lodge buildings for summer mountain access.
50 public parking spaces, public restrooms, public lockers, and bike racks are all part of the new Dean Street mountain portal

The new Lift 1A will be a telemix, a combination of gondola cars and chairs. This format allows year-round, multimodal use and will give the Aspen Skiing Company the opportunity to explore reopening Ruthie’s Restaurant. This is a historic opportunity to bring Lift 1A back to the core of Aspen and make it as easy to access as the Silver Queen Gondola.

Two lodges are proposed as part of the plan. Gorsuch Haus at the top of South Aspen Street, immediately adjacent to the current site of Lift 1A, and Lift One Lodge on the properties once occupied by the Holland House, Skiers Chalet Lodge and Skiers Chalet Steakhouse. Gorsuch Haus will be an 81-room hotel and Lift One Lodge brings another 104 lodge rooms. These new properties contribute much needed new lodge inventory and provide the bed base that is an important foundation for the vitality of this portal.

The developers asked the townspeople to support “this historic opportunity that has emerged thanks to the insistence of Aspen City Council and the many people in the community who pressed for the return of walk-up access to Aspen’s original base area.”

If approved by voters, developer Michael Brown (Lift One Lodge) said it would take four or five years for all of it to be built. Lift 1A would be out of service for one or two seasons.

Because it involves city land, zoning changes and variances to the land-use code, the plan requires a public vote, which is anticipated for this spring.

Developer Jeff Gorsuch (Gorsuch Haus) asked the room for its support in that election and said the project connects the heart of the mountain with the soul of the town.

More information can be found at: www.LiftOneCorridor.com.

Winter 2018/9 Snowmass Base Village

Snowmass Base Village

The resort out here making the most news this winter isn’t Aspen! Snowmass Ski Area and the new Base Village have captured the spotlight with a host of new development and on-mountain amenities. The 10-year project fully realizes the vision partially developed in 2004 but halted by the great recession in 2008. On Mountain improvements for seasoned skiers such as the super light weight Sheer bliss quad and the new High Alpine quad have opened up access to The Cirque and the Wall like never before. Aspen Snowmass know how to deliver the goods to all levels of skiers.

Even Gwyn’s High Alpine restaurant has had more than a little work done. All in the name of refreshing the way for new generations.

The Snowmass Legacy – A New Chapter

It is all happening now at Base Village.

Only nine miles down the road from Aspen or a quick 20 minute free bus ride, Snowmass Mountain is as big as Aspen Mountain, Aspen Highlands and Buttermilk put together and has always appealed to families with it’s excellent value and emphasis on all-ages fun. The mountain boasts a wide array of terrain for all abilities, including the wide-open cruisers at Elk Camp and Big Burn and the always-rewarding extreme terrain of Hanging Valley Wall. But for many years the resort became mired in on-again, off-again attempts at renovations and expansion. It’s been a resort town with no central focal point. That’s all set to change in a big way.

Snowmass Base Village is a collaboration between East West Partners, Aspen Skiing Company and KSL Capital, all of whom are based in Colorado. The goal is to complete Fritz Benedict’s original master plan crafted back in 1967. Benedict, a celebrated Aspen architect and visionary, viewed Snowmass Ski Area as the ultimate ski-in, ski-out resort anchored by a pedestrian village at the base. The three partners have committed $600 million towards this effort and it’s currently the largest family-oriented mountain resort development in North America.

Update: Limelight construction from Snowmass Base Village on Vimeo.

Builders are hard at work as we speak on the current phase of construction including the new 99-room ski-in, ski-out Limelight Hotel and residences. In fact, their goal is to have the hotel ready for guests when the mountain opens late this November! That’s just the beginning, however. There will be a new public events plaza with an ice-skating rink, new restaurants (including a new Creperie), new bars and a community center.

New Limelight Hotel

The new Limelight Hotel will have an official grand opening on December 15^th and features an indoor/outdoor lounge area, a kids game room, a fitness center, a five-story indoor climbing wall that the public can use, and spa pools right on site. Paired up with the hotel are the Limelight Residences, eleven free market ownership units and the exclusive Snowmass Mountain Club. Members get private access to on-mountain parking, lockers and their own lounge area.

Other parts of the development Lumin, three-private access residences with contemporary interiors and One Snowmass, 41 brand-new condominiums spread across two buildings connected by a shmantzy pants signature glass walkway.

Come Visit

What does this all mean for guests visiting Snowmass this winter? It means that its time to revisit Snowmass explore the new village and checkout the new restaurants as well as taking some laps in Powerline glades! Those of you who have enjoyed winter in Aspen/Snowmass might just like what you see well enough to take the plunge and purchase a place of your own. There is a good range of inventory in Snowmass Village from the swanky new development to classic ski condos in need of a new owner. Single family home prices have seen a full recovery and new homes are replacing the 1970’s chalets.

Call lifestyle guru Gareth 970 309 7649.