The lifts have closed for the season and warm spring temps have been the story these past few weeks. Locals are sneaking in some vacation and rest to recharge before the busy summer season. Now’s a good time to take a look at how things are trending in the Aspen/Snowmass real estate market!
Winter saw median sales prices return to last summer’s peaks, moving up over $2 million from October sales (from $17.7m to $19.9m). This was to be expected given seasonal trends, but the market remains one that currently favors buyers as shown in the Title Company of the Rockies dashboard below.
Properties are remaining listed for an average of 263 days, up from 244 in February and buyers are also benefitting from price reductions, as more listings (22% vs. 12% in February) are coming down from their original prices. In fact, not a single listing has increased in price since March 7th. These price reductions also show up in the price per square foot metric, which has declined since February from $3,780/sq. foot to $3,555/sq. foot.
All that said, the report warns of a tightening market going forward with decreasing inventory (85 vs. 100 in February), as stubborn high interest rates may be keeping owners from listing their homes and transitioning to something new. The median price of new listings shot up to $36,000,000, but that mostly reflects more ultra-high end, newly built properties coming online versus in the fall. Given the generally smaller number of listings in this area, a few big estates can exercise an outsized impact on the market as a whole, as evidenced by the periodic spikes in the trendlines above for this metric.
Updated Price Category Analysis
610 South West End St. #E103, Aspen – property for Sale!
Aspen Homes from $3-$5,000,000
Things have tightened considerably in this segment consisting mostly of condominiums. The median list price shot up over the winter to a new high of $4.3 million (versus $3.7m in early December), and the number of listings has dropped from 52 in January to only 42 this past week. These units are being snapped up quickly, with the median days on the market plummeting to just 70 from 240 in January, though most of that were properties that were under contract but still under construction at that time. There is some price flexibility as 33% of current listings have decreased, but overall, it seems that buyers are eager to enter the Aspen real estate market and sellers who list their properties at the right price don’t have to wait long to close. We expect that this segment will plateau until mid-summer. Have a look at properties in this price range here!
Aspen Homes from $5-$10,000,000
This segment contains higher end duplexes and older homes, and buyers looking for hidden gems that aren’t right downtown can often find what they seek right here. The median price remains flat from the beginning of the ski season, but $8.25m nets buyers more space at 3,700 sq. ft and 4 bedrooms/4.5 baths vs. only 3,000 for 3 bedrooms/ 3 baths in late November. Homes in this category consistently stay on the market longer than higher priced properties, reflecting fewer buyers and more competition among sellers. Buyers willing to put in the work can be rewarded with a wonderful home in this category. View these listings here!
143o Sierra Vista Drive, Aspen – current listing
Aspen Homes from $10-$20,000,000
With the median list price hovering at the top end of this category, the heart of the market remains right here. The homes in this category were tied with the condo segment as the quickest to be sold during the ski season, and that remains the case right now. The median price is up $800k vs. November and the home age average is 6 years older than it was 6 months ago. According to analyst Tim Estin’s most recent report, “the launch of Stratos Snowmass in January — an 89-unit, final-phase development in Base Village — fueled a surge in market activity. By mid-April, 68 of the units were under contract, representing 76% of the project. As these premium residences come online and sell quickly, they’re exerting upward pressure on the broader market.” Both Stratos’s Cloudstone and Sky Cabin designs fall in this price range and are almost completely sold out. Our advice regarding homes in the price range remains the same. If you’re interested, don’t hesitate to move. Here are the listings in this category!
Aspen Homes from $20,000,000+
Aspen continues to push the boundaries of top-dollar listings and sales. April 9th saw the closing of a $52 million West End home with a guest house at 400 and 410 Lake Avenue with a robust price per square foot of over $9,000. While that number is eye-opening, we’re seeing more high-end properties move this metric upwards. Estin remarks, “Over the past 12 months, Aspen has recorded at least seven verified sales in the $6,000–$7,000 per square foot range, excluding land-heavy transactions. These deals are lifting values in adjacent neighborhoods, even for homes that lack the same level of finish or architectural pedigree, and shifting buyer expectations.” This activity has pushed median prices in this segment up $10m versus November, though buyers benefit from a 1,000 sq. ft. larger home with an additional bedroom, (9,000 sq. ft. vs. 8,000 sq. ft. and 6 bedrooms vs. 5). While interest rates have come down a bit from their 7% peak last year, they still remain an impediment to increased inventory, with recent construction filling that gap. The current inventory can be found here!
What to Expect this Summer
We’re in the midst of a seasonal lull until at least Memorial Day Weekend at the end of May. The Aspen Airport reopens on June 5th and when it does, we expect summer visitors and second homeowners will return in force. These potential buyers will be here to take advantage of beautiful weather and a full slate of events and activities.
The real wild card is the economic uncertainty we’re experiencing right now. Congress looks set to extend both tax cuts and the current estate tax exemptions for the highest income brackets, but layoffs, tariffs and estrangement between traditional trade partners may drive both prices and unemployment higher. Further forward, corporate profits will likely be impacted as people cut back on spending. Indeed, the dollar has lost value and markets are already showing fluctuations that reflect unpredictability and decreased consumer confidence.
Mortgage rates are expected to remain relatively stable, hovering in the mid-6% range, with little significant decline anticipated. That said, rates could be impacted by factors as inflation, tariffs, and economic conditions. Expect for the Fed to respond with a cut if the economy takes a rapid turn for the worse.
How will this impact the Aspen real estate market? Inventory will remain tight for three reasons:
- New construction will be impacted as tariffs drive up price and availability of raw materials.
- Aspen has been famously stingy with demolition permits and approvals for new development.
- Current homeowners who have been in the market for at least five years are still benefitting from low mortgage rates. Selling means forgoing this key advantage.
The very wealthy will be mostly shielded from the short-term impacts of the economic downturn and might very well be looking for a safe harbor from the stock market. Buyers will continue to seek out Aspen properties and those with the means will keep driving the top end of the market upward. Tight inventory means fewer values to be found in all segments of the market. Those who close will be rewarded as history has shown the value of Aspen real estate lies in its enduring strong performance in good times and bad. Those who invest will have an asset that grows as they enjoy living in a place everyone wants to be.