With colder temps and storm cycles arriving frequently, winter is definitely here! Both Aspen and Snowmass are open and skiers and snowboarders are eagerly awaiting the addition of new terrain this weekend. As we head through December and into the heart of the holiday season, it’s time to update you on the latest from the real estate market out here.
This fall saw a slight course correction as median sales prices fell from their summer highs. That said, we’re experiencing a pronounced rebound as we move into winter. A closer look reveals other signs of movement in the market.
The latest Title Company of the Rockies dashboard shows a picture that differs in comparison to our last update, but the overall market still favors buyers, at least for now. The median list price continues to drop from the summer highs of close to $20 million down to $18.7 million and buyers are seeing fewer properties for sale as available inventory declines (74 vs 102 in August). The price per square foot has plateaued at $3,780, showing the consistent value of properties for sale. What’s changed? Sales have been exceeding new inventory for several weeks and if these trends continue, the balance could shift towards sellers.
Eye on Snowmass
The condo and single-family home market in Snowmass is maturing rapidly as you can see from the chart above. The past five years have shown enormous growth. At the beginning in 2020, the average price and price per square foot figures were much lower, but the available properties were also quite a bit older and in need of renovations. The price bump in 2021 and subsequent bumps represented an improvement in overall inventory as well as the demand for properties as the mountain (and town) transformed with the addition of Base Village.
The overall trends show steady increases in price even when the sales numbers drop. The market has continued to heat up and is starting to chase Aspen in terms of price growth. Older properties in need of remodeling remain good buys as they’ll continue to increase in value going forward.
2024 to date has reached a high-water mark of $9 million in average price, as new, high end residential construction came online and quickly sold. These new homes and townhomes made up a larger share of the overall market this year. Developers are seeing that high net worth buyers are increasingly eyeing Snowmass as a viable Aspen alternative.
Another trend worth noting is a wave of recent condo sales that bodes well for the single-family home market going forward. Snowmass has a new wave of local condo owners, a percentage of whom will likely be looking to move to larger homes in the future as they set down roots in the valley. All in all, don’t overlook the growth potential of real estate in Snowmass.
Updated Price Category Analysis
550 South Spring Street, Aspen – property for Sale!
Aspen Homes from $3-$5,000,000
Two big changes have hit this segment in the past few weeks. First, the median list price for the (mostly) condo market has dropped to $3.7 million (from $4.2 in August), and second, the average days on the market has steadily increased to 264 days (from 142 in August). There have been no price increases to available inventory, showcasing that buyers are seeing things trend in their favor and are biding their time. Digging deeper, the available inventory has dropped from 72 to only 43, which means two things: buyers are closing when they are ready (perhaps with some price incentives from sellers), and fewer sellers are listing right now. Good chance they’re waiting until more potential buyers arrive over the holidays and things pick up. Have a look!
Aspen Homes from $5-$10,000,000
Here’s the latest from our duplex and older home category. For those willing to forgo the downtown core and do some hunting, these properties can offer great value and an entry point to the market. The price has rebounded from the spring and has even blown past last November’s high ($8.5m today vs. $7.2m in 2023). With that increase comes more space; a four bedroom, three bath home averaging 3,000 square feet (vs. 2,522 last year). Things remain tight here but there are still values to be had for those doing their homework! View these listings here!
71 & 73 Smuggler Grove, Aspen – current listing
Aspen Homes from $10-$20,000,000
Welcome to the action segment of the Aspen market. Sales in this tier have seen the largest jump from August and available homes are staying on the market fewer days than the other categories. The median price ($15,950,000) has remained steady from the spring. That money gets buyers a 4 bedroom, 5 bath, 29 year-old home, i.e. one that’s far from new construction but roughly the same vintage as what was available this past spring. The upward trend of activity from August may be due to the new units that entered the market in Snowmass Village this summer and were quickly snatched up. The amount of activity in this segment and shrinking inventory are both leading to price increases as the season heats up, so buyers are advised to lock down what they find straight away assuming it meets their needs. Here are the listings in this category!
Aspen Homes from $20,000,000+
The blockbuster sales that drove the news cycle this spring have cooled down considerably during the fall offseason. This segment of the market still contains some spectacular properties including a 224-acre Woody Creek estate with 22 bedrooms for $59 million, but interested buyers simply haven’t been in town during the off-season, though they’re likely headed our way as we speak for the holidays. Activity and prices are starting to pick up as interest rates recently dropped 50 basis points to below 7% and further cuts could be forthcoming. Median prices have dropped $4,500,000 since April to $34 million for an 8,200 sq. ft. home with 5 bedrooms and 7 baths. Our analysis is the status quo will be changing sooner rather than later so buyers are advised to take advantage while they can. The current inventory can be found here!
What to Expect this Winter and into 2025
As the season begins and the crowds come to town, we expect activity and prices to continue their upward trajectory. There are several reasons why, not just the arrival of more potential buyers in town.
The outcome of the U.S. Presidential election will both reassure and embolden the billionaire class with the prospect of little to no estate tax reform. Recent remarks and moves from the Federal Reserve have increased likelihood of further interest rate cuts. Indeed, the Mortgage Bankers Association and Wells Fargo are both forecasting the 30-year fixed mortgage rate could fall to between 5.5% and 6.0% by the end of next year. Current inventory remains tight but sellers know when to time their listings so we expect new properties to hit the market in the coming months. Lastly, Pitkin County property taxes remain among the lowest in the country when compared to similar communities. Long story short, we anticipate more blockbuster (and overall) sales this winter.
We close with the overall understanding that in the words of one local broker, when it comes to real estate in Aspen and the Roaring Fork Valley, “there’s no such thing as buyer’s remorse,” only regret at not having taken advantage of earlier opportunities. Regardless of the market segment, property values continue to increase out here, which makes investors look to Aspen as a reliable alternative to the volatility of the stock market. Aspen’s development remains constrained by both geography and government restrictions and the relative scarcity of inventory and enduring appeal of the lifestyle out here will keep buyers coming back.