The most recent third quarter reports for Aspen Snowmass real estate are now out and the results show solid demand, pricing and sales for our local market.
Total sales of residential properties are 4.3% ahead of last year’s pace, with a total volume of $972 million. A continuation of this current trend would eclipse last year’s total volume by more than 2%.
314 residential real estate transactions are on the books for this year so far, just below the 323 that were recorded for this period last year. Looking ahead, the total number of residential transactions (419) will still fall short of the average totals (465) from the last two years. Inventory is a bit down as well for the month of September, from 580 active listings at the beginning of the month to 569 at the end.
The number of pending listings (or listings under contract) rose dramatically this past month. The year to date monthly average was 46 but September saw an increase to 73 or 9% of the active listings. This represents a new high-water mark since the great recession’s all time low in 2009. This is a positive sign as we enter the final quarter of the year, showing that buyers and sellers are finding common ground and moving forward.
That statistic will have an upward impact on prices as will the pace of sales shown by the 90 and 180-day moving averages outperforming the 270-day moving average. Naturally, a closer look inside the different market segments here shows a fair amount of variation.
Digging into the various Aspen Snowmass market segments, the properties listed for under $5 million win out with the most activity (i.e. highest rate of closings). 82% of the total market falls into this category and there is a 14-month supply in this group.
Things slow down as we move up to the $5-10 million range. Only 11% of this year’s properties were in this segment and the supply stretches all the way to 67 months (over 5 years).
Things slow even further above the $10 million mark. 117 properties are currently listed and only 6% of all sales this year were in this category. How slow are things? There’s over a 6-year supply of inventory!
As you can see, the overall market is doing well but the picture changes dramatically depending on the market segment. Buyers looking for homes above $10 million have ample inventory to choose from, but those looking for properties below $5 million should move fast. Going forward we expect to see some pricing flexibility at the top end of the market but less and less at the lower price points. Buyers have more leverage at the higher end, sellers at the lower end.
The overall U.S. economy and the stock market have remained resilient in the face of the ongoing tariff battles between the United States and China. This could have impacts going forward, but what remains a strength is the cache and desirability of living in the Roaring Fork Valley and Aspen in particular. There are few places that have more enduring appeal. We expect that 2019 will come to a close as a successful year for real estate sales here.